Trudeau’s Liberals losing to leaderless Conservatives in polls

By Amy Chen

A leaderless Conservative Party of Canada has overtaken Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s Liberal Party in the most recent Forum Research poll[1]Conservatives inch ahead, which suggests that If an election were held today, the Conservatives would win 170 seats, the Liberals 128, the NDP 26, the BQ 13, and 1 for the Green Party.

The numbers put the Tories, who have been without a permanent leader since Stephen Harper’s resignation following the October 2015 October defeat, in majority territory.

Liberal support has decreased by three percentage points, from 39% on February 26th to 36% amongst decided and leaning voters, while Conservative are up three points, from 35% on February 26th to 38%, to take the lead in opinion polls for the first time since September 2015.

NDP (15%) and Green Party (4%) support has remained steady while the BQ support has dropped one percentage point to 6% compared to February 26th.

“Canadians are not happy with the Liberal budget,” said Dr. Lorne Bozinoff, President of Forum Research. “The budget is so unpopular in fact, that we’re seeing the leaderless Conservatives gain an edge in popularity for the first time since 2015.”

In British Columbia the Liberals (35%) are well ahead of the Conservatives (29%), who themselves are statistically tied with the New Democrats (28%), the poll shows.

In the Atlantic region, the Liberals (48%) have seen a decrease in support, losing eleven points while The Conservatives (32%) are up two points.

In Québec, both the Liberals (40%) and Conservatives (20%) are slightly up since February, while the BQ (22%) is down five points.

In Ontario, the Liberals (38%) are trailing the Conservatives (45%) by seven points after the former shed four percentage points and the latter gained seven since February 26th.

In the prairies, the Conservatives (48%) are up six points, while the Liberals (19%) are down by ten and the NDP (20%) is down by five points compared to February.

The results of the random sampling of public opinion among 1029 Canadian voters are considered accurate +/- 3%, 19 times out of 20.

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5 Responses to Trudeau’s Liberals losing to leaderless Conservatives in polls

  1. Anonymous says:

    The Prime Minister likes to talk about cleaning up the tax code, but he forgets that all of the tax credits that he is taking away from families made life more affordable for them. The truth is that regular Canadians feel like they are being nickel-and-dimed to death by the Prime Minister.

    He promised a lot in the election. He made a lot of commitments, but now it seems like a lot of rhetoric. For all the money that he spent, and for all the taxes Canadians have to pay, what are the results? The Prime Minister is now in his second budget, clinging to this failed Liberal idea of taxing and spending because it seems impossible for him to understand what regular Canadians are actually going through out there.

    Canadians needed a break. That is what they were hoping for in this budget, but they did not get one. We, on this side of the House, are not surprised. After all, this is the same government that broke its promise to lower taxes on small businesses, broke its promise to limit its deficit spending to only $10 billion, and broke its promise to balance the budget, all within six months.

  2. Arleigh Luckett says:

    The changes in support and the difference between the two parties are all within the + or – 3% margin of error do what this really tells us is that we are at risk of another false majority one way or another. It’s a great example of how little it takes for the country to lurch from one policy direction to another under our current electoral system. If we actually got the representation we voted for Parliament would look like that pie chart and our representatives would have to actually talk and listen to each other to come up with plans and actions that worked better for all of us. The time for electoral reform is now.

  3. Edward Brown says:

    I have a small question:
    When the graph was being made, why did you use the colour green for the Bloc Quebecois and purple for the Green Party?

  4. Liberals approval of Kinder Morgan and BC’s LNG pipeline (esp. w/o consultation with all affected 1st nations as promised), broken promise on reformed electoral system by 2019(despite commission presenters 88% choice of Proportional Representation), and failure to initiate public infrastructure projects due to abiding by Harper Conservatives rules requiring 50% private investment before gov’t funding, as well as staying with Harper gov’ts CO2 emmission goals while saying they support limiting global warming to 1.5 deg. in Paris, all cause a lack of faith in Trudeau led Liberals. The budget just indicates we’re not getting value for our tax dollar – given Lib.lack of accomplishments.

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