Whistleblower questions reliability of statistics published by Vancouver real estate board

By ThinkPol Staff

A real estate industry whistleblower is questioning the reliability of Vancouver real estate statistics released by the realtors board.

The insider claimed that Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver’s unwillingness to subject their statistics to independent scrutiny may be one reason that the board “is sending their lawyers after anyone who gets access to the raw data.”

“Just ask them for the raw data and/or independent audit reports,” the source told ThinkPol. “I’m willing to bet the farm that they’ll never do give out that information”

We requested REBGV either send us the raw data so that we could verify the board’s statistics, or to provide us with an independent audit report.

REBGV ignored our request, but defended the accuracy of its data.

“We follow rigorous processes, developed over many years, to ensure the accuracy, integrity, and consistency of our statistical reporting” Communications Director Craig Munn told ThinkPol. “If someone is concerned about information in our reports, we’re always open to hearing that feedback and reviewing the information.”

Munn recommended that we take a look at MLS Home Price Index (HPI) benchmark prices, saying that “We find that it’s a more accurate indicator of real estate pricing trends over time.”

We were unable to calculate MLS HPI ourselves without raw and intermediate data from REBGV, as it involves a number of manual data “scrubbing” steps^[1]http://www.rebgv.org/sites/default/files/HPI%20Methodology2012.pdf.

Instead, as a proxy, ThinkPol calculated the ratio of sold prices to assessed value (SPAV) for single family homes in the region using data published by BC Assessment and information provided to us by the industry insider.

One interesting finding we made was that SPAV showed a marked drop in August 2016, the month when the foreign buyer tax came into force, while the MLS HPI did not.

Between January 2017 and June 2017, SPAV graph shows the same general trend as the MLS® HPI^[2]http://www.rebgv.org/sites/default/files/REBGV-Stats-Pkg-November-2017.pdf.

After June 2017, however, HPI holds steady while SPAV shows five months of decline.

“I’ve dealt with snake oil salespeople in every profession but none as consistently as the ones in my industry,” the real estate industry insider told ThinkPol. “They thrive on deception and fraud.”

“They need to hide the truth from the public to drive the narrative that real estate can only go up,” they added. “Anyone will who tries to educate the masses will immediately receive threats, legal and/or physical, as the industry desperately tries to hide the fact that the party’s over.”

The insider welcomed the decision by the The Federal Court of Appeal to upheld a lower court’s decision ordering Toronto Real Estate Board to make detailed financial information about home sales publicly available^[3]Toronto Real Estate Board v. Commissioner of Competition, 2017 FCA 236 (CanLII) http://canlii.ca/t/hp34l.

“A home purchases is the single biggest purchase most Canadian families make in their lives,” the whistleblower said. “I’m glad to see the that days of the real estate industry deliberately withholding information that would allow Canadians to make an informed decision are numbered.”

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Note to REBGV ‘lawyers’: All information in this article is publicly available.

[Photo Credit: BC Assessment]